Models

"We live and die by the models," Fredin said. "The models underestimated the instability, which you can't detect until it is almost on top of you."

Snow Total Follow-Up

My apologies to Billy Axelrod, of Loveland, Colorado for not including his measurement report yesterday. Billy was deputized as an official FKS weather spotter two weeks ago. The ceremony included whiskey, painted ladies and cocaine. Ice water was also available. Here is his report from Monday, January 12 - submitted at 4:18PM Mountain Standard Time:

I regret to inform you that one man cannot stick a tape measure in the snow, fire up a cancer stick, and take a picture all at one time. The good news is I took multiple measurements throughout the region (well, in the parking lot of my residence) and measured 3 5/8'' of snow at 7:15 this morning. Areas covered in Kentucky bluegrass were subject to wind and children frolicking and carbon dioxide emissions, therefore, no measurements were obtained. I am comfortable and fully satisfied with the parking lot measurements.

Thanks again, William. I'll monitor the official FKS weatherspotter wire a little more closely the next time it snows (tomorrow perhaps?). And regarding your issues measuring, smoking and taking pictures (aka handling the money, driving the car and talking on the phone), I thought that's why you got married. If Mrs. Axelrod can't help, then maybe it's time to start experimenting with the timer on your camera. I can not solve your problems, sir, only you can. Still, you're a good man . . . and thorough.

FAILURE

The 32-load plastic Tide bottle stands a robust 9 inches - photo taken at 9:12AM on Monday, January 12

I freely admit that the only two forecasts I saw last (Sunday, Jan. 11) evening were Mike Nelson's on 7News and Marty Coniglio's on 9News. Both of these gentlemen predicted no more than a light snowfall (maybe an inch or two - see photo in previous entry) . . . although they did caution that the morning commute could be made a little slower. They were right about the commute, as I'm sure those of you who are forced to do such a terrible thing found out right away. Mine, which is tame by anyone's definition (an estimated 3.89 miles) took almost 40 minutes. During this commute I saw a woman next to me using one hand to eat and the other to hold her phone while trying to navigate the icy streets. All I could do was shake my head and sip my whiskey.

What I find to be pretty shitty, however, is 9news throwing this little jab at CDOT (Colorado Department of Transportation) in their story about this morning's storm:

The early morning snowfall caught the Colorado Department of Transportation a little bit by surprise a spokesperson said.

Yeah, they were surprised because none these meteorologists predicted the severity of the storm. This is what pisses me off. There's absolutely no culpability on the part of 9News. All too often people get riled up at CDOT for not keeping the roads clear during/after a big storm. But most of the time CDOT is at the mercy of the forecast. If the forecast is for light snow and then it dumps almost five inches in five hours, they have to scramble and, by that point, it's too late. I'm pretty sure if old Nelson or Coniglio would've said something about four to six inches of snow falling so quickly, CDOT probably would've had their plows at the ready, guiding you merrily to your place of employment.

But that didn't happen. Neither Nelson nor Coniglio made any such claims and the result was an exceedingly slow commute. I can only hope that you used the confusion and poor driving conditions as an excuse to go chill out at a coffee shop or bar for an extra 15 minutes before punching the clock. Because if you didn't, you're a sap.

I do need to give credit to 7news, however, because they sort of threw Nelson under the bus (and rightly so) with their story about the morning snow storm. Check out these beauties:

"Horrible," said Russel Smith who has lived and worked in Denver his entire life. "This was the worst drive yet. And it was made even worse because we weren't prepared based on the information given by forecasters," said Smith.

"It was ugly," said Patty Gonwa about her commute. "I was not prepared based on the forecast. They said it wouldn't hit until mid-morning. And then, it wasn't supposed to get bad, maybe one to two inches. And this is, well, more than one to two inches," said Gonwa. "They were dead wrong."

That's what I like to see. While 7News doesn't come right out and blame their own meteorologist, they do have the courage to quote people who know the real story. I can respect that. 9News's bullshit, on the other hand, I can not.

Lastly, here are the snow totals if you're into that kind of thing.

Inching Along

Hi. How's it going? Good. Great to hear. Hey, listen, if you have to commute this morning, be aware that Coniglio predicted some snow. So did the rest of them. I know, I know . . . but let's just see how this plays out.

I watched an egregious amount of NFL playoff action this weekend and, in accordance to my rules, drank an egregious amount beer. But now I feel really terrible. Every time I pass gas it smells like stale Red Bull and Vodka. I didn't have any Red Bull or Vodka over the weekend which leaves me confused and concerned.

Have an awesome week.

Love,
Flip

Headed for a Blow Down

Ignore the part about ignoring the people laughing. If you don't find women who look like extras in "The Office" getting blown down by the wind in a parking lot to be funny, well, I don't want to know you.

It's Not a Tomer

Like American children (or so I'm told), the snowflakes falling in the heart of Historic Lower Downtown Denver on Saturday afternoon/evening were obese. But they were also quick. They came and went rapidly and at all hours of the day - like the action at a good whorehouse (or so I'm told). For some, the plump afternoon snow brought feelings of coziness and wonderment. For others, it brought lust and a thirst for bourbon. But it was here for everyone and that's really what counts in the end.

As far as those predictions were concerned, I can give everybody a pass except Tomer and maybe Gaguilera. It's honestly difficult to give them too much shit though because I really have no idea exactly how much snow fell around the Denver Metro area. Downtown, where there is no grass - only body heat and streets - I'd say maybe 11 to 13/16ths of an inch fell. I know because I shuffled through it at 1:43AM Sunday - high on beer, good music and Nuggets victories.

An official FKS weatherspotter, a Mr. Langenbrewer from Littleton, texted me about seven hours later (a bit too early on a Sunday morning I should add) to report only an inch there. I think he used a stick of string cheese to measure, but I can't be sure because there was no photographic evidence of this measurement. But at least he reported it, because no other official FKS weatherspotters did and that, quite frankly, is a little disappointing . . . but also understandable. It's the weekend. People (myself and Langenbrewer excepted) have better things to do than measure snow.


Still, Tomer, you can't just say 0-3 inches. I've thought about his prognostication some more and just become more disgusted with it the more I think about it. It's lazy. I imagine his reasoning is that Metropolitan Denver and its suburbs add up to a rather large geographical area and within that geography are pockets of varying elevation, wind, cement and everything else that might effect levels of measurable snowfall. That's very true, but it's still no excuse. You take the time, Tomer, to study each area (be it the Western Slope, the Northern Suburbs, Pueblo, Peetz, The Highlands, East Colfax, ElBro, etc.) and give accurate predictions for each. That's why you got into the Colorado weather game, isn't it Tomer? To be the best? Well, dammit, be the best. Your bio says you like a challenge! Don't settle for wide-ranging and broad predictions. Strive to achieve perfection . . . or at least to within an inch on either side of it.


Gaguilera - Don't give me that look . . . you know what you did. I saw you on the evening broadcast changing your forecast from a dusting (see previous entry) to 2-4 inches in and around town. You second guessed yourself, sir, and that's a sign of weakness. More than that, you guessed second, and that is simply inexcusable in your profession. Trust your gut - not other meteorologists. Resist peer pressure, Dave! You were right on with your initial forecast yet allowed the opinions of others to alter that keen instinct of yours. For shame.

Snow Forecast Round Up

What's up, Natives, Texans (gross) and Californians? The lack of posting has been quite uncouth, I know, but shit's been happening and it's hampering old Flip's schedule. Said shit isn't horribly interesting, but the crux of it is I picked up a debilitating chest cold (probably from that vagabond) that put me out of commission for a few days (I coughed so hard and intensely the morning before New Year's Eve that I sharted in bed). Luckily I rallied and even foolishly smoked a cigarette as aught nine was rung in (under extremely mild temperatures might I add). Good stuff . . . although I'm pretty bummed that this will be the last of the "aughts" for my lifetime. At least we can still say "back in aught one, two, four, etc." ad nauseum for the foreseeable future. Like, "Remember when Kathy Sabine completely blew forecasting the great Holiday Blizzard of aught six? It's amazing she still has a job!"

Anyway, the prognosicators of atmospheric conditions are back at it and are predicting a few inches of snow. Here's a quick round up of the various local forecasts for your pleasure:

9News (Altieri) - "The cold front responsible for the snow will move over Denver and the Front Range around midday on Saturday. Once the front passes, temperatures will drop rapidly and snow will start to develop. Most of the snow in the metro area will fall during the late afternoon or early evening on Saturday. The 9NEWS Weather Team expects 1 to 3 inches of total accumulation for most metro neighborhoods. Locations along the Palmer Divide in Douglas and Elbert Counties could see up to 5 inches while the foothills see up to 6 inches. Northern Colorado including Fort Collins, Loveland, and Greeley will see 1 inch or less."

Channel 4 (Gaguilera) - "A cold front arrives early Saturday morning and will drop our temperatures back in the 30's. There is also a chance for light snow showers around the metro area but it's not expected to bring any accumulation. Sunday's high will only be in the 20's."

**Ed. Note - Nice! Right off the bat we know one of the big dogs are going to be dead wrong. My money's on 9 News. Altieri inspires no confidence.**

7News (Hidalgo) - "Another cold front will move into the state on Saturday morning, spreading snow into the mountains and colder temperatures across the plains. Afternoon highs in the metro area will be about 25 to 30 degrees colder than Friday. There will also be a slight chance of light snow across the plains and in the metro area with the passing of this storm on Saturday afternoon."

Fox31 (Tomer) - Eat a fat one, Fox, for making us watch your stupid video forecasts. Tomer, who I bet is very awkward around women, thinks the cold front's going to blow in during the overnight/early morning hours and with the snow following in the afternoon/evening. He says 0-3 inches which is a no-no here at FKS. If you want to be a money forecaster when it comes to snowfall, you need to be accurate within two inches. Three is too wide of a margin. Especially when you're throwing zero in there. What the hell? Grow a pair, Tomer! Either stick to your guns and say it's going to snow 1-3 inches or go with a trace to no accumulation. It can't be both you geeky bastard.

KWGN 2 (Who Knows) - You people are lazier than Fox. There is virtually no words on their page. Just pictures and video. Shameful. Anyway, here's their guess:



I'll be back Sunday to check up on these goons. Until then, you can find me at either a sports bar enjoying NFL playoff football or at the Grizzly Rose enjoying the melodious tunes of The Randy Rogers Band and Cross Canadian Ragweed.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't send off one final Mile High Salute to Mein Shanny. While things have indeed been mediocre in terms of wins this past decade, the man did deliver two world championships to this title-starved city and I will never, ever forget that. That overly tan, rodent-looking football genius brought much joy and pride to this city and for that we should all be thankful. Actually, you don't have to be. But I always will be. Happy trails, Mike.


(Nobody chews zebra better than Shanny)